How exchange rate movements affect a nation’s trading relationships with other nations

Saameynta ey Kuleedahday Sarifka Lacagta Qalaad Dhaqaalaha Soomaliya?

Waxaan horay uga soo hadalanay in dalkii laga isticmaalo laba Lacagood kuwaas oo kala ah Shilin Soomaaliga iyo Dollar ka waliba uu isticmaalka lacagta dollar ka aad looga isticmaali ogyahay markii loo barbardhigo lacagta Shilin Soomaaliga ah, iyo guud ahaanba saameynta ay ku leeyihiin Dhaqaalaha Soomaaliya.

Muhiimada Sicirka Sarifka (importance of exchange rate)

Sicirka sarifka lacagta ayaaa wuxuu door muhiim ah ka qaataa qaab nololeedka bulshada ku dhaqan dalka, waxaa jira halbeegyo badan oo lagu cabiro dhaqaalaha wadanka  kuwaas oo ay kamid yihiin sicirka sarifka (exchange rate), sicir barar (inflation rate), dulsaarka (interest rate) ( miisaaniyada ganacsiga(balance of trade) iyo waliba intaas iyo in kasii badan, laakiin exchange rate ka ayaa wuxuu yahay midka ugu muhiimsan ee lagu cabiro dhaqaalaha wadanka.

Marka larabo in la ogaado wadamado dhaqaalaha fiican miseba dhaqaala xoogan leh ayaa waxaa la eegaa qiimaha lacagta wadanka iyo deganaanta sicirka sarifka, hadii uu wadanka lacagtiisu qiima leedahay xadiga isbadalka lacagtana aanu sidaa u sareynin waxey calaamad u tahay maamul wanaaga dhaqaalaha wadanka, Sadaas darteeda ayaa nin khabiir ah ku ah lacagaha caalamka oo lagu magacaabo Professor Robert Mundell ayaa wxuu yiri “if there is a single issue that could lead to the breakup of Canada, it’s the exchange rate” (hadii uu j iro arrin kaliya oo sababi kara inuu kala qeybiyo wadanka KANADA, wuxuu noqonayaa sicirka sarifka).

Dabcan waa hadal oo xoogan kaasoo kuu tilmaamaayaa muuhimada exchange rate ka  uu uleeyahay wadanka illaaa heer lagu tilmaamo waxa kaliya ee sababi kara in uu kala qeybsamo wadan gaar ahaan Kanada sida khabiirkuba yiri.

Maanta hadii lacagteenu qiima lahaan laheed waxey inoo horseedi lahayd in wadankeena dhaqaale xoogan yeesho dadkuna nolol aad u qiima badan heli lahaayeen oo qarinagan 21aad umadeenu gaajo iyo harraad uma dhimateen intaana waxaa inoogu wacan jaahilnimada inaga heysata xaga dhaqaalaha, oo maanta raga dhaqaala yahanada caalamka waxey cilmi baaris badan ku sameeyaan waxyaabaha xasilin kara dhaqaalaha wadanka  si looga hor tago sicir barar ku imaan kara dhaqaalaha wadan uu leeyahay.

Marka hadii wadamadii inaga dhaqaale badnaa nagana aqoon badnaa oo lacagtooda qiima leedahay walibana lacag gaar ah isticmaala ay cabsi ka qabaan dhaqaale bur bur maxaa innaga dowladeena u diiday in ay dollarka mamnuucdo lacag gaar ahna inoo sameyso si aan awoodeena dhaqaale sare ugu qaadno.

Intaa kadib waxaan guduha usii galeynaa qeybaha kala duwan uu saameynta ku yeeshay mise ku yeelankara horumarka dhaqaalaha soomaaliya, waxaana ka mid ah sida soo socota:

Maciishada (Cost Of Living)

Marka hore waxaa muhiim an ineynu isla fahanno waxa loola jeedo “Maciishad”. Maciishadu waa qiimaha meel dhexaadka ah si joogta loo kala siisto adeega iyo alaabada ee suuqa yaalla, hanoqoto cuntada, caafimaadka iyo wixii lamid ah.

Waa hubaal in maciishada gobalada dalka aaney isku wada mid ahaan karin taasina waxey ku xirantahay dakhliga dadka iyo kheyraadka uu gobalka leeyahay, waayo gobalada kala duwan ee soomaaliya maanta heerka maciishadooda isku mid maahan wey kala qaalisan yihiin weyna kala jaban yihiin, taasina waxey ku xirantahay kheyraadka kala duwan, dakhliga iyo tirada bulashada kunool gobalka.

Sidaa darteed hadii aan isdultaagno tusaalooyin yar oo aad ufudud oo kusaabsan nolosha dhabta ah ee ka jirta dalka una suuragalin kara aqristayaasha maqaalkan inay si dhib yar u fahmaan mise sawir guud ah ay ka qaataan  saameynta lacagta qalaad (dollar ka) ay ku leedahay dhaqaalaha dalkeena.

Sida ka muuqata shaxda sare, waxaa aan arki karnaa sid soo socota:

Innagoo ka amba qaadeyna shaxda sare ayaan waxaan ka garan karnaa qiimadhaca ku dhacay lacagta dollar ka heerka uu gaarsiisanyahay iyo sida uu u saameeyay maciishada bulshada soomaaliyeed ee dakhligooda ku xiranyahay lacagta dollarka. Labadaan sano gudahooda ayaa wuxuu dollar ka qiimadhacay heer gaaraaya 45.44% markii loo bar bar dhigo lacagta shilin soomaaliga, halka badeecada gaar ahaan sokorta qiimaheedu iyadana sare ukacay 18.5% waxaan meesha ka garan karnaa marka hadii lacata la isticmaalo uu qiima dhac ku yimaado in ay nolashu qaali ku noqoneyso dadka dollar ka isticmaala maadaama awoodooda wax iibsiga ay hoos u dhacday.

Hadii aan sikale u dhaho, kasoo qaad mid kamid ah macalimiinta iskuulka oo  mushaarkiisu ahaa $200 (May 2010 kii) laba sano kadib  oo maanta ah intaa kuma noolaan karo, oo wuxuu horay ugu iibsan jiray maanta kuma iibsan karo waayo $200 ayaa waxey qiima dhacday 45.44% sidaa darteeda waxey lamid noqoneysaa isagoo  $110 mushaar ahaan u qaata marka laga gooyo hoos udhaca 45.44% oo lamid ah $ 90,  sidaa darteeda macalinkaa kaliya maahee qof waliboo dollar mushaar ahaan u qaata intaas ayuu qiima dhacay mushaarkiisa taasoo saameyneysa noloshiisa iyo dadka isaga ku tiirsan intuba.

Gabagabadii iyo gunaanadka, waxaan kusoo gabagabeyneynaa qeybtaan, muhiimada sicirka lacagta (exchange rate), iyo sida uu usaameynaayo maciishada (Cost Of Living) innagoo soo qaadanay tusaalooyin aad u sahlan iyo waliba oraah ay yiraahdeen dad khabiir ku ah arima dhaqaale si aqristuhu u fahmi karo macnaha dhabta ee maqaalka.

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